Here in the UK we are in the midst of a series of country-wide strikes by our national mail carrier Royal Mail. The strikes are all down to disagreements relating to ‘modernisation’ – which the management say is essential to overcome market changes that have led to core business deliveries falling at 10% per year. But which that the mail workers’ union fears will result in job losses.
One commentator I heard the other day, speaking of the need for modernisation and whether it was simply too little too late, summed-up the fundamental challenge the Royal Mail faces thus… “They are operating in a Sunset Industry. In ten or perhaps twenty years time there simply won’t be any bulk mail as we know it today. There will just be home deliveries and everything else will be online.”.
This set me thinking… Firstly, how this seems like a classic example of a once monopoly supplier walking myopically into obscurity, not unlike the big gas mantle suppliers as the world shifted to electric light. Right from the early days of email, I could never understand why the Royal Mail didn’t get in on the act. Our national telephone company did, resulting in British Telecom now providing the bulk of of all broadband connections in the UK. But not Royal Mail. Not sure which bit of the term ‘e-mail‘ they didn’t find relevant to their business?
Secondly, and more relevantly, this is a very timely reminder to all strategically minded fundraisers not to get trapped in a similarly myopic manner – unless they want to be part of a Sunset Industry too. Because, of course, most individual donor programes are still predominantly reliant on direct mail – leading this week’s issue of trade publication Third Sector to sport the front page headline “Charities ‘will lose millions if the post strikes continue’”.
For several years now response rates to most cold and warm direct mail campaigns have been falling, yet surprisingly few fundraisers have seriously begun to consider how they might significantly reduce their reliance on the postal system. Mind you, if the forecast is correct of “ten, or perhaps twenty years” before people no longer use personal mail as we know it, then perhaps you feel you’ve actually got more pressing issues to deal with?
If so, then bear in mind that if there’s one thing that the amazingly fast growth of social media usage has shown us, it is that the pace of digital communications change has a tendency to surprise even the most enthusiastic observers. So, perhaps you should allow some time to think about it? If Third Sector’s headline predictions come true and Christmas Appeal income is slashed due to non-delivery, then you’ll certainly have the basis of a clear business case for seriously considering the alternatives – because it seems likely that these won’t be the last such strikes that we see as the sun continues to set on Royal Mail.
So, whether the strikes continue through Christmas or not, how about you make a New Year’s resolution to kick-off 2010 with a thorough contactability audit of your individual donor database – properly assessing just what proportion of landline, mobile phone, and email addresses you have across the key segments of your database? Then set yourself specific annual targets for improving non-postal contactability and a clear strategy to test and learn how to make most effective use of alternative channels going forward.
There is, of course, the view that the rapidly approaching sunset is in fact somewhat overstated.
The postmen are claiming that there is no reduction in the mail they carry, citing the internet’s role in increasing deliveries from, amongst others, Amazon and ebay. The introduction of other mail carriers such as TNT haven’t reduced loads as they actually use the Royal Mail for the postman’s walk, meaning that the arrangement simply forces the Royal Mail to deliver the same post but for less money !
Door drop volumes show a very healthy interest from the charity sector (indeed all sectors), but are similarly at risk from strikes as in most instances the RM delivery will be better suited than the cheaper newshare option. Still there is no risk that these volumes are declining any time soon, the RM’s D2D business is very robust indeed.
So, are we seeing the RM skin back its obligation and ability to be a national postal service because of declining response rates and the, presumably, related decrease in volumes ? Do they really make the lion’s share of their revenue from mailsort ?
Don’t let the similarity of the term “mail” and “e-mail” fool you. BT was in the business of connecting your home to a network through copper wires, in order to let you have conversations with people elsewhere. “Conversations” have turned into a wider array of communication, but BT never was helping you with your conversations anyway. They’re still in the business of connecting you to a network.
“Fundraisers” are “specialised marketeers”, working on channels for an exchange between an organisation and an individual: “we both want problem X to go away, our organisation is committing to working on that, you can help us”.
Until recently, only the exchange of “money” scaled well enough, but now you might as well bring in the skills, expertise, and contacts of these individuals. “You can help us” can become a wider array of ways to help, and marketeers (should) have the skills of scaling up these new ways of engagement.
If, of course, the receiving end of the funds being raised also opens itself up to receive these new forms of resources that are flooding around the web more and more.
You might loose millions in “fund raising”, but you need a large part of those funds to buy skills and expertise elsewhere. Now you can start doing “skill raising” and “expertise raising” as well to perhaps even raise more than ever before.
I see this more as a Sun Rise opportunity